Difficult to increase the rate of 3%

According to economist Vu Dinh Anh, in 2012, the exchange rate will be more stable compared to 2011 due to supply shortages of foreign currency would not much, while the demand for foreign currency is not too large.
Sir, in 2011, Vietnam dong has depreciated sharply, on 10.27%, yet alone for 3 months last year, growth rate is only about 1%. Will this trend has stabilized the exchange rate continues to be maintained in 2012?
Mr. Vu Dinh Anh: In 2012, the exchange rate of Vietnam will continue with the positive signal of the last months of 2011. The reason is that the balance of trade deficit in 2012 could be as low as 2011, ie only about 10 billion U.S. dollars from the export of goods will not be much due to economic difficulties, that involve the import of raw materials to produce decreases. This helps the foreign currency demand overwhelmed as in previous years.
Meanwhile, in 2012, compared with the currencies of other areas of the U.S. dollar will continue to maintain its position, can also increase compared to other currencies due to the debt crisis Europe is still no way out.
Another factor affecting the number devaluation is inflation, if inflation is kept below 10% it forecast in Vietnam dong is dumped about 2-3% is possible.
Strong support for the balance of payments is the indirect investment (FII) and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam, his assessment of how this funding in 2012?
- I'm not too optimistic about the capital inflow will increase much, but also the domestic capital from being withdrawn. FII inflows will remain because the scale is not large, it is unlikely that will pull these investors billions of dollars from Vietnam, because the substance does not solve their problems abroad. So that the world market difficulties that foreign investors do not have to withdraw capital. Vietnam's stock market is still attractive it is unlikely that it will withdraw capital.
But direct investment, the current foreign investors to pour capital committed to the practical significance than the year after WTO accession. The attraction of foreign policy of Vietnam has become more regulated, so the disbursements in 2012 will continue to increase due to capital inflows registered in 2009 and 2010 were high and delay deployment of This project will fall in 2011 and subsequent years. In addition, the restructuring of industry investment in Vietnam has a competitive advantage and high value added will also ensure the disbursement rate in the future.
In recent years, the State Bank has introduced several measures such as increasing the sanctions for the illegal dollar transactions outside banks and confiscated material evidence in order to narrow the free market, these can help stabilize the foreign exchange market?
- I do not appreciate this approach, because in fact the official market themselves are rich sources of dollars to provide for the flat market should be free market is inevitable. But just be the stress in the official foreign exchange market, the free market continues to back operation. Besides administrative measures, I think the core measures is most economic measures, that is seeking to increase the value of money.
In 2011, the confidence of the community affected money made of gold and foreign currencies "throne" in 2012 but whether this continues?
- In past years, the same people spend money to buy more foreign currencies, making foreign currency sources are abundant, thus forcing banks to encourage lending in foreign currency. Together with the interest rate is currently more attractive than foreign currency and exchange rates were fairly stable in recent months will make people more comfortable when holding cash.
In recent years, foreign currency credit has been increasing sharply, causing the pressure in a foreign currency loan no small influence to demand U.S. dollars?
- In my opinion, if in 2010, pressure on foreign currency loan no small impact to exchange rate factors have softened in 2011, foreign currency credit growth in both years is 18.7% ( 2010 is 48.45% - PV). And in 2012, the State Bank has committed to increase 2-3% rate is a signal from management agencies to support the borrowing of foreign currency business. Currency risk is assured, at least until the end of Q3 so enterprises should not be too worried. Besides this story also solves excess foreign currency and lack of money as the current contract.
In addition, the borrowing and buying foreign currencies to import goods lot at first, but now tough economic times, the demand for foreign currency to buy imports do not greater, demand for foreign currency so high this year. The bank will advise enterprises to borrow foreign currency and converted into cash to avoid the high interest rates.
He also said inflation only under a new number, the exchange rate may increase in the rate of 3%, but this is easy to implement in the next year?
- This year I think the biggest pressure on Vietnam's inflation depends on the price of electricity and gasoline prices. Two items I think this is very difficult to stand still. These non-economic factors are powerful but the price of other goods, bring inflation goes up. The monthly inflation 1-2012 was declared a 1% also can not say anything. To consider the annual inflation is inflation regardless of March, April. If in 2 months, inflation remains low, increasing the ability to keep inflation below 10% is achievable.